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Budget 2009-10: Will it spell boom or gloom?

India has certainly not remained untouched by the galloping march of global economic recession, which gathered steam in America in December 2007 and has today affected most of the world's economies. In India, the economic downturn has slaughtered jobs of scores of people and has had a debilitating impact on the country's industrial output. The economic slump has also cut India's exports. And this, say experts, is just the tip of the iceberg.

In such a gloomy scenario, the Interim Budget, presented by acting Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, on behalf of convalescing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, holds special significance. The common man has a lot to expect from the government in terms of sops and tax cuts. With General Elections just round the corner, people are hoping that India's 12th Interim Budget does not turn out to be a Pandora's box.

Ganesha anticipates that this year's Budget will give a boost to the floundering economy by fixing infrastructure, generating rural employment and providing incentives to sectors hit by global recession. The wise Ganesha predicts that:

  1. Inflation rates may come down.
  2. GDP growth rate may be between 7-8% in the year 2009-10
  3. There will be a big political debate on the Budget.
  4. Prices of food and vegetables may come down.
  5. Housing loan rates may climb down.

Sectors which may benefit from the Interim Budget are:
Power, Real Estate, Infrastructure, Oil and Gas, Aviation, Tourism, Health, Fertilisers, Textiles, Mining, Banking and Insurance.

Sector Watch (Post Budget)

IT
Virgo is placed in the first house while Ketu is posited in the fifth house, the house of workforce, with Neptune and Uranus. Saturn is debilitated in the eighth house with Jupiter. Rahu is posited in the eleventh house with Mercury and Sun. Sun, Rahu and Mercury are in conjunction in the 11th house, the house of investment. Currently, Ketu is passing through the 11th house and Saturn is passing through the 12th house. Keeping this mind, Ganesha says IT sector stocks may throw up average to negative returns in 2009. Investors are advised to reduce their stocks in this sector.

Banking
Cancer is placed in the first house and the Ascendant Lord is placed in the house of destiny. Moon is placed in Pisces in the Revti Constellation. The Lord of Revti Constellation is Mercury. Since Mercury will be stationary, banking sector will make sustainable profits. The Ascendant Lord is placed in the house of destiny, and the Lord of house of destiny is placed in the first house, which indicates the hold of the banking sector in the economy. Sun, the Lord of the house of economy, is placed in the 12th house, the house of foreign traders. This  combination invites foreign banks to establish their operations in India. However, Saturn is also placed in the 12th house, which means foreign bankers are not making big gains. The period till January 28, 2010, will remain under the influence of Mercury's Mahadasha. However, Saturn will pass through the second house of the banking sector till September 09, 2009. The placement of Saturn in the second house from January 26, 2009 to February 07, 2009 is unfavourable, as it denotes poor funding, stringent payment position, financial stagnation and slump in stock shares. Moreover, the period between May 25-June 05, '09 and September 24-October 05, 2009 is not favourable and negative sentiments for the banking sector may prevail in the market.

Health Care
In the natal chart of Health Care sector, Pisces is posited in the first house and Jupiter is posited in its own house. Saturn is debilitated in the second house. Moon and Rahu are in conjunction in the fifth house, which is unfavourable. Moon is posited in its own house while Mars is posited in the eighth house. Ketu, Uranus, Sun, Mercury and Neptune are posited in the 11th house, the house of government benefits. Venus is posited in the 12th house, the house of heavy taxes.

These planetary positions make it difficult for the Health Sector to maintain its hold over the market. Moreover, Jupiter will pass through the 11th house in 2009. Accredited results are on the cards during this period. The financial position of this sector may grow remarkably. Business deals during this period may produce profits and incredible gains. The policies drawn for this sector may yield good returns. From February 23, 2009 to March 03, 2009, Health Care sector may also hear some good news. Investors are, therefore, advised to hold the heavy scrips of this sector and also buy at every correction.

FMCG
In the natal chart of FMCG/Consumer Durable/Capital Goods sector, Pisces is posited in the first house and Jupiter is posited in its own house. Saturn is debilitated in the second house. Moon and Rahu are in conjunction in the fifth house, which is unfavourable. Moon is posited in its own house while Mars is posited in the eighth house. Ketu, Uranus, Sun, Mercury and Neptune are posited in the 11th house, the house of Government benefits. Venus is posited in the 12th house, the house of heavy infrastructure. Saturn is transiting through the 6th house. This transition may give negative results. The status of liabilities may also remain a source of concern for the sector. Investors are advised not to hold the scrips of this sector.

Realty
In the natal chart of the Realty Sector, Leo is the Lord of the first house. Venus, the Lord of the house of profession, is also posited in the first house. Mars is posited in the third house, the house that indicates growth in the realty estate. Neptune, Ketu, Uranus are posited in the sixth house, the house reflecting the efficiency of the sectors. Saturn is debilitated and is also in conjunction with Moon and Jupiter in the ninth house. This particular factor is driving growth in this sector.

What Next?
Ganesha is very optimistic that the Indian economy will begin to gain traction. Global economy will also begin to stabilise.

Ganesha's Grace
Dharmesh Joshi
The GaneshaSpeaks Team