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RBI credit policy review

RBI credit policy review

Introduction: Reserve Bank governor D Subbarao will present the Mid-Term Review of the Annual Policy Statement (credit policy) on Friday, 24th October 2008. In the light of this, Ganesha predicts the kind of measures RBI may announce.

Planetary Positions as on 24th October 2008 at 05:30

Sun – Libra at 7 degrees
Moon – Leo at 08 degrees
Mars – Libra at 19 degrees
Mercury – Virgo at 19 degrees
Jupiter – Sagittarius at 22 degrees (R)
Venus – Scorpio at 12 degrees
Saturn – Leo at 24 degrees
Rahu – Capricorn at 20 degrees
Ketu – Cancer at 20 degrees

Astro Analysis
Moon in the fourth house in Stheer (Fixed) sign indicates that the policy this time will be targeted towards stability and it will almost be on drawn on the same lines as that of the last quarter.

Budha, the lord of the nation’s second house of finances, is exalted though in dual sign, it is an Earth sign, again indicating that the policy this time may not aim at curbing inflation, but may try to maintain it. On the other hand, RBI may be too practical and stubborn, fixed as Earth and staunch as well as probably hard headed and unmovable.Looking at the aspect of Rahu on Budha, and that too with an orb of 1 degree, the policy seems to be more rash, hard and strong, something that will increase the money flow towards banks and not the stock market. This seems so because Budha as the lord of the second house of banking system is more powerful. There can be an argument from others that Budha as well as the fifth house of stock and commodity markets, both get a trine aspect from Rahu, so why should the policy be such that it encourages money flow towards banks and not the stock markets? Well, here Ganesha would say that yes it is true but notice that Rahu aspects the fifth house and not the second house, by its trine aspect.

The policy will no doubt be retaliatory and reactive in nature and not proactive as the dispositor of Moon, that is Sun, is debilitated. Sun also being in applying aspect to Mars, the Marak planet for India’s chart, also indicates a policy inclined to reduce the liquidity in the market.

The Moon being in applying aspect to transiting Yog Karaka Shani, the policy will again be marked towards shortening and reducing the money supply. Moon is applying to Shani so the policy seems to favour the Government and the nation too.

Another indicator of the policy bent towards reducing money flow and liquidity is the hard aspects that Budha is receiving. Budha is under the aspect of malefic Rahu, it is Square to transiting Guru and is also second from Saturn and twelfth from Mars and Sun. In fact, it can be said that Budha is in Paap Kartari Yoga, which brings a strain on Budha, and thus a strain on the money supply and flow as well as a strain and blow on the commodity and stock markets.

Ganesha feels that it will be a harsh policy targeted towards making money supply tight, with the main aim of maintaining the inflation and the secondary aim of reducing it. The Government may not be inclined towards the stock markets this time.

This may take a toll on the stock market too.

Wishing India a good financial growth

With Ganesha’s Grace,
Rikhav Khimasia