Union Budget for the financial year 2011-2012 shall be presented by Hon'able Minister of Finance Shri Pranab Mukherjee. It is set to be a consumption driven Budget, which would be aimed at propelling the country higher onto the growth curve. The rising inflation and fiscal deficit of approximately 4.8% to 5.5% have made this Budget an awaited one. As every year, this time around too people are pinning high hopes on this Budget, and sincerely hope to get some relief from the rising inflation and other government policies. Three main reasons are the root cause behind our current national financial problems - high government expenditure, unsustainable subsidies and steep interest payments. Whether or not our dear Finance Minister fulfils the hope of the teeming millions of India by handling these areas of concern is a question that will only be answered when the Union Budget gets finally presented in the parliament on 28th February 2011? Then, it'll be for us to see if the Budget 2011 turns out to be people friendly or unsympathetic to the common man.
Unless the government brings down the existing fiscal deficit, it's unlikely that the growing inflation will stop any time soon. The task is monumental, and the government needs to reduce the revenue-expenditure gap. The common man also would expect sops and tax cuts from this Budget. Ganesha too anticipates that this year's Union Budget will boost the floundering economy by fixing infrastructure, generating rural employment and providing further incentives to recession-hit sectors. Ganesha also expects the government to control and bring down expenditure, which is vital for bridging the fiscal and trade deficit. Ganesha takes a look at overall commerce and industry of India, and gives his astrological analysis on the approaching Union Budget 2011-2012.
On the day when the Union Budget is presented by the FM in the parliament, transiting Jupiter will be in its own sign, Pisces. Transiting Mars will be conjunct transiting Sun in the tenth house. This planetary combination is called as Surya-Mangal Angarak Yog. The another potent combination present on 28th February 2011 is Chandra-Rahu Grahan Yog.
Our reference point while doing any reading of a major national event is India's natal chart. As per the chart, India has Taurus as the ascendant with its natal Sun being posited in the 3rd house in the sign of Cancer. However, on the day of the 2011 Union Budget, transiting Sun passes through the inauspicious Shatatara Nakshatra in the sign of Aquarius. Ganesha foresees that there may be heavy discussions and arguments as the Budget may propose to replace the Income-Tax act with Direct Taxes Code. Consequently, the government may also take a tough stance on petrol prices and other related products. Ganesha also foresees electricity prices going up as result the Union Budget 2011. Since the transiting Sun will be in the Constellation of Rahu, Ganesha foresees that the products utilising atomic energy and electrical shares may remain in news.
In the natal chart of India, Moon is posited in the third house in the sign of Cancer. While on the day of the Budget, transiting Moon will pass through Purvasadha Nakshatra in the sign of Sagittarius. This indicates that the prices of Rubber, Tobacco,Tin Shares, Wheat, Castor Seeds, Rice, Clarified Butter, Sandal Wood, Perfumeries, Diamond, Cloth, Wool, Plastic, will be affected in some or the other way. Additionally, banking shares, marine products, metals like tin and zinc, insurance sector and foreign bonds shall be in the news. On this day, Moon is conjunct Rahu, the resulting yoga called as the Chandra-Grahan Yoga, is not a good combination. As per vedic astrology which states "Chandrama Manso Jataha" or in other words, 'moon signifies the mind', it is well understood that if moon gets affected negatively, it's the mind that bears the results in form of confusion and lack of clarity.
Mars in India's natal chart is posited in the second house in the sign of Gemini and on the day of the budget transiting Mars is passing through Shatatara Nakshatra in the sign of Aquarius. On the same day transiting Ketu is passing over the natal Mars in the second house. As Ketu is transiting through Gemini, this planetary combination may not bear positive in results though something negative can be expected. Mars represents the areas of Castings & Forgings, Chemicals, Cigarettes, Construction and Contracting, Housing - Real Estate, Detergents, Dry Cells, Dyes and Pigments, Plantations - Tea & Coffee, Refineries, Agro-Chemicals, Ceramics, Building materials like tiles, marble, granite etc.
The transit of Jupiter through Utrabhadra Pada Nakshatra in its own sign of Pisces which governs the eleventh house of India's natal chart may bear some benefits for the areas of financial institutions, investments, leasing and hire-purchase, term-lending Institutions, shipping, religious products, temples, trusts, government loans, bonds and government securities, education sector.
Venus, the Lord of the ascendant and the sixth house as per India's natal chart, will be passing through sign of Capricorn. This indicates that due emphasis will be on legal activities, research work, public activity, automotive sector - 2 and 3 Wheelers. Transiting Mercury, Sun and Mars will be in conjunction in the tenth house in the sign of Aquarius. This House represent the import-export, National Growth, Foreign Trade, Rural Advancement. Also, the combination of Sun-Mars (Angarak Yoga) shall instigate the Finance Minister to bring out and cover the crucial fiscal and financial aspects like revenue deficit, fixed deposit, flow of FDIs, Inflation rate and GDP growth rate.
Despite criticism by the opposition, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will do their utmost to present a progressive budget for the country, but will fail to garner appreciation for the same. The conjunction of transiting Moon and Rahu in the 8th house on the day of the Budget indicates that the FM may try to play safe, but will make efforts to maintain the growth rate.
Currently, India is under the influence of Mars-Moon-Jupiter Mahadasha, and on the day of the budget, Sun is Vargottama planet, so pharma sector can expect some boost. The dashanath on that day is Mars, and Mars rules foreign and partnership house, so PSU Banks and foreign bank partnership may come under scanner and may get affected. Also, the IT and Software sector, particularly some software types, may get some benefit in this Budget. Pratyantardashanath Jupiter transits over its own sign Pisces, and hence Education will become more affordable, but higher education will be heavier on the exchequer's pocket. Overall, the FM, in all likelihood, shall present a Budget that will be safe yet difficult to decipher, but will have a 'legacy' effect - a Budget that will be useful not only in the upcoming West Bengal Elections, but also during the next General Elections.
Let's have a sectoral look:
Sun, the Lord of the 4th house in the natal horoscope is posited in the 3rd house in the sign of Cancer. On the day of this Union Budget, transit of Sun is through the inauspicious Shatatara Nakshatra in the sign Aquarius, along with the 10th house combination of Mars and Mercury. impact the IT Sector and hence it will be only marginally positive.
Venus and Mercury represent the auto mobile sector. Mercury is the Lord of the 2nd and 5th houses in India's natal chart, and on the day of Budget, it transits through the 10th House in conjunction with Sun. Venus is the Lord of ascendant and the 6th house in the horoscope of independent India, and it transits through the 9th house on the day of Budget. Thus, this time auto mobile industry may not receive any direct benefit or a major impact, but Ganesha sees some positive moves on this part of the Finance Minister. Thus, a boost to the infrastructure sector in form of road allocation etc. can be expected. This plus some benefits for the auto industry ensures a bright future for this sector in India. Overall, the impact of this budget shall be neutral on this sector. No gain, no loss!
This sector is represented by the Sun. Sun is posited in the 3rd house in the sign of Cancer in India's natal chart. On the day of the Budget, the Sun transits through the inauspicious Shatatara Nakshatra in the sign of Aquarius, however, Sun is also a Vargottama Planet on the same day, so the long term view pertaining to the Pharmaceuticals sector shall be strong and strengthening. Areas that may benefit from tax cuts from the Budget may be life saving drug such as drugs for breast cancer, hepatitis, arthritis etc., formulation and production of drugs and R&D Units.
Mercury represents the banking sector, and as per the natal chart of India, Mercury is posited in the 3rd house in the sign of Cancer. On the day of the budget, Mercury transits through the 10th house and shall pass through the Shatatara Nakshatra of Rahu. This alignment can be challenging to this sector because retail loans, deposit rates, growth in savings deposits, asset quality may be affected. Overall this sector is in consolidation phase, so more branches and more ATMs may be offered in this Budget. Ganesha also notes that the FM will focus at the PSU banks' performance and insurance sector. Limit for FDs may increase, and resolve the NPA limit.
Infrastructure, Cement & Real Estate
This sector is represented by Mars, and India's natal Mars is posited in the 2nd house in the sign of Gemini. On the day of the budget, transiting Mars passing through Shatatara Nakshatra in the sign of Aquarius, while in the 10th house of India's natal chart, transiting Ketu is passing over natal Mars in the sign of Gemini. Mars is the 12th Lord (the house of foreign investment), therefore possibilities to get assisted by Foreign Direct Investment and World Bank do exist. National Highways, Railways and Airport Authority can get more benefits owing to this alignment. Privatization and modernization are expected for Metros and Tier - II cities. Currently, India is under the influence of Mahadasha of Mars, so all in all the growth story of India Inc. will continue unabated! Ganesha is very optimistic that the Indian economy will begin to gain traction. Global economy too, is expected to stabilise, around this time.
Metal and Steel
This sector is represented by Saturn. As per the natal chart of India, it is posited in the 3rd house of the destiny and government, in the sign of Cancer. On the day of the budget, it is in the Hasta Nakshatra of the sign Virgo (which happens to be the fifth house of the natal chart of India and thus governs the stock-markets) and is retrograde. Hence, over all the growth measures in the economy may indirectly spur this sector.
This sector is represented by Venus, the Lord of the ascendant and the 6th house as per the natal chart of India. It is passing through Uttarashadha Nakshatra in sign of Capricorn. This indicates that the growth rate will continue for Radio Stations. Broadcasting Companies may too get benefits. The FM may formulate favourable policies for new television channels. Bulk of this growth has been volume-driven rather than pricing-led. Ad-revenue, circulation revenue, print production cost and average price may also come under consideration in all major language publications of India.
This sector is represented by Mercury, the Lord of the 2nd and 5th houses which is posited in 3rd house in India's natal chart. The transit on the day of the budget will be through the Shatatara Nakshatra in the sign of Aquarius in the 10th house. This indicates a lot of unexpected changes in this sector. Subscriber base has grown and but pre-paid churn ratio is high. So, the long-term view for this sector is good, but short term view for this area looks glum, adds Ganesha.
Fertilizer, Pesticide, Agriculture
The sector is represented by Rahu and Ketu. They are posited in ascendant and the 7th house respectively in the natal chart of India so this sector is always in news. On the day of Budget, Moon and Rahu are in conjunction, so over all this sector looks to get a boost, says Ganesha.
Advice for investors in the Stock Market
Swagrahi Jupiter, Surya-Mangal Angarak Yoga and Chandra-Rahu Grahan Yoga are the major planetary alignments on the day of Budget. Thus, Ganesha advises investors to trade cautiously.
March - Very active, Wide fluctuation, Highly volatile dates - 10,11,21,22,28,29
April - Very active, Wide fluctuation, Highly volatile dates - 13,15,21
Ganesha predicts that up to 10/04/2011, Nifty will make you job. Ganesha advises you to take entry and exit keeping a small margin, without expecting much profit. Although the range looks set to remain narrow, Ganesha foresees a seemingly steady market.
Nifty has given returns of (-9.09%) in March-2007, (-10.66%) in March-2008, (-2.1%) in March-2009, (6.91%) in March-2010, so you are advised to focus on particular stock. Avoid F&O.
All the Best!
The GaneshaSpeaks Team